Tensions in South Asia: War Unlikely Between India and Pakistan, But Bangladesh Faces Rising Strategic Threats
By: Tonmoy Sarkar Ujjol & Writing Team at PoriPurno.com
Date: April 9, 2025
While the idea of a full-scale war between India and Pakistan has long dominated headlines, current geopolitical and economic conditions make such a conflict highly unlikely. Both nations lack the economic strength to sustain a major war. Modern warfare is driven by economic capacity, and neither country currently stands to gain significantly through direct military confrontation.
The long-standing Kashmir dispute remains unresolved. However, if it were to be decisively settled in favor of one party, it could disrupt the internal political balance in both nations. As such, maintaining a state of controlled tension—occasional skirmishes and political posturing—seems to serve both governments better than outright conflict.
Bangladesh: Caught in the Crossfire
While India and Pakistan remain locked in strategic maneuvering, the real danger could fall on Bangladesh. The country is currently navigating an extremely volatile phase, politically and economically. Despite any political stability projected by current leadership, notably Prime Minister Yunus, Bangladesh remains vulnerable to foreign interference and pressure. The rise in foreign reserves has done little to address the deep-rooted collapse of the economy.
In the context of renewed India-Pakistan friction, Bangladesh may become a collateral target. If allegations arise that Bangladesh is supporting Pakistan, even indirectly, it could be used as a pretext for diplomatic or even military pressure from India.
India’s Strategic Interests in Bangladesh
Recent analysis suggests that India may have two primary strategic interests inside Bangladesh:
1. Feni Region (Feni River):
Feni town and its river are of significant geostrategic value. Gaining control of this area could allow India to isolate Bangladesh’s Chittagong Hill Tracts, creating a quasi-separatist scenario. However, this region is also being closely monitored by both the United States and China. The U.S., in particular, has long been speculated to harbor visions of establishing a Christian-majority microstate in the region. As a result, India may hesitate to act unilaterally here.
2. Chicken’s Neck Expansion (Siliguri Corridor):
India’s vulnerability at the narrow Siliguri Corridor—commonly referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck”—has been a persistent concern. Expanding this corridor could be a core part of India’s long-term strategic planning. If India were to gain control over parts of Bangladesh’s Panchagarh, Thakurgaon, or Lalmonirhat districts, the corridor would widen significantly. This would secure uninterrupted access to the Seven Sister states of northeastern India and eliminate a major national security concern.
A Warning for Bangladesh
Given these looming challenges, Bangladesh must adopt the highest level of strategic caution. Navigating international diplomacy skillfully and securing domestic political and economic stability are now matters of national survival. Without urgent reforms and a strong global presence, Bangladesh risks becoming increasingly unstable—and, in the worst-case scenario, could lose its strategic significance in South Asia altogether.
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